By BBBB
Studies have shown that in predicting election outcomes political betting markets outperform polls.
President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump may find the current betting odds to be a stronger indicator of the reaction to the first Presidential debate than traditional polls.
Historically, bettors have had a strong track record of picking the President, only losing twice since the 1800s.
The betting market, which bookmakers can’t legally operate in the US, shifted noticeably to the right following the debate between Biden and Trump.
There is speculation in the betting markets about whether the Democrats might turn to Kamala Harris instead of Biden to spearhead their campaign.
Current 2024 US Presidential Election Odds (as of July 11th)
William Hill
- Donald Trump: 4/7
- Joe Biden: 9/2
- Kamala Harris: 11/2
- Gavin Newsom: 10/1
- Michelle Obama: 12/1
Bovada
- Donald Trump: -180
- Joe Biden: +375
- Kamala Harris: +600
- Michelle Obama: +2000
- Robert Kennedy: +4500
Accuracy of Betting Odds in Past Presidential Elections
The betting favorite has only lost twice since 1866. The notable upsets occurred in:
- 1948: Harry Truman (D) beat eight to one odds to defeat Thomas Dewey (R).
- 2016: Donald Trump overcame seven to two odds to beat Hillary Clinton (D).
In the 2020 election, Biden was the betting favorite, maintaining the leading position with most bookmakers from May through November.
Trump’s Rising Odds and Biden’s Declining Prospects
Former President Trump’s odds of returning to the White House are on an upward trajectory, while President Biden’s chances of re-election are in free fall. This decline is due to mounting scrutiny over Biden’s ability to serve another term as commander-in-chief.
Economist’s Prediction Model
As of Monday, The Economist’s prediction model showed:
- Trump: Roughly 74% chance of winning the electoral college in 2024.
- Biden: 26% chance.
The model predicts Trump will secure 310 electoral votes compared to 228 for Biden. In their first face-off in 2020, Biden won with 306 electoral votes to Trump’s 232.
Trends Post-Debate
Since the debate on June 27, Trump’s chances have improved by three points, while Biden’s dropped by the same amount. Trump’s lead has been consistent, with his odds climbing steadily since early June.
Polymarket’s Prediction
Prediction market Polymarket’s forecast on Tuesday showed:
- Trump: 63% chance of winning.
- Biden: 19%.
On the debate day, Biden’s odds were at 33%.
Recent polling data reflects Trump’s growing lead over Biden post-debate.
A Wall Street Journal poll conducted from June 29 to July 2 found Trump would beat Biden 48% to 42% in a two-person matchup. This represents the widest lead in Journal surveys since late 2021, up from a two-point lead in February.
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